We are two months away from the start of the 2024/25 summer crop season. Early indications of weather prospects are encouraging, showing a firm likelihood of a La Niña occurrence. The International Research Institute for Climate Change & Society at Columbia University places the probability of a La Niña occurrence at over 50% between now and April 2025. Such weather events typically bring above-average rainfall across SA and the entire southern region.
There is hope that after a challenging 2023/24 summer production season SA could transition to a favourable period for agriculture, similar to what we experienced four seasons before the 2023/24 season. Given that SA had one of the most prolonged periods of La Niña induced rains from the 2019/20 season to the 2022/23 season, the news of an early end to the 2023/24 El Niño is a welcome development.
That said, the SA Weather Service has maintained a cautious view and not yet declared the start of the La Niña event, as we see with the International Research Institute for Climate Change & Society’s latest reports.
In its update on July 5 the weather service stated that “the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) is currently still in a neutral state and is predicted to weaken further. However, predictions are mixed in whether it will weaken towards a La Niña state during our next summer season.”
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has a similar view, as it highlighted in its update of June 25: The Enso outlook is currently at ‘La Niña Watch’, meaning there are some signs that a La Niña might form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024. A La Niña Watch does not guarantee a La Niña will develop.”
Given that we are early in the season, such cautious optimism is understandable from the SA and Australian weather authorities. But this does not take away from the fact that the El Niño weather event has at least ended, and we are now moving towards a more favourable agricultural production environment.
Moreover, these reports mirror the pattern we have seen in the past, where only in September does one get a clearer view of the possible weather outlook. With the summer grains and oilseed season only intensifying from mid-October in the eastern regions of SA and about mid-November in the western areas, a firm view of the weather outlook in September is still a valuable insight for farmers to plan their planting appropriately.
SA’s 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed were devastated by the El Niño-induced midsummer drought, particularly from February to March. This is at a time when farmers had planted slightly bigger areas for summer grains and oilseeds from the previous season. The impact was severe in various regions because roughly 20% of maize, 15% of soybean and 34% of sugar cane are under irrigation.
The majority of the crop areas are rain fed and exposed to drought stress. Thus, it is unsurprising that SA’s 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed production is projected to be down 20% year on year, at 16-million tonnes. This comprises white maize, yellow maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans.
Still, SA is in far better condition than much of the rest of Southern Africa. For instance, Zambia and Zimbabwe lost over half of their grain harvest because of the 2023/24 midsummer drought. The possibility of a La Niña — provided it brings sufficient and favourable rains — would help improve the agricultural outlook and food security conditions in the region in 2025.
Aside from field crops, SA saw better production conditions in horticulture because of better water levels in the dams. All of SA’s fruit and vegetables are produced under irrigation. The financial effect of the drought on the farming enterprises will be evident in the coming months, but given that the country had four consecutive seasons of good rains and ample harvest when commodity prices were also elevated, the financial stress may not be as severe as in previous droughts.
We thus remain optimistic that SA farmers may again be eager to plant a sizeable area in the 2024/25 summer grains and oilseed season, especially with promising weather prospects.
Follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo).
